Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
